Monday, September 28, 2009

Unemployment: Welcome to the New Normal-Minyanville

This headline unemployment number (9.7%) is what we see when we read the paper. What we typically don’t see is the real number of unemployed. For instance, if you haven’t actively looked for a job in the last four weeks, even if you would like one, you’re not counted as unemployed. Instead, you’re called a “marginally attached” or “discouraged” worker. Often there are very good reasons for this. You could be sick, dealing with a family emergency, going back to school, or have no transportation.

Right now, about one-third of marginally attached workers actively want jobs but haven’t bothered to look because they believe there are none in their area -- at least, not for them. If you add that extra 758,000 to the unemployment data, you get what’s called U-4 unemployment, which today is 10.2%. If you count all marginally attached workers, the unemployment number is 11% (U-5 unemployment).

And if you add those who are employed part-time for economic reasons (i.e., they can’t get full-time jobs), the unemployment number rises to 16.8%. (That’s called U-6unemployment.)



Unemployment: Welcome to the New Normal-Minyanville

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